Gavin McKenna’s first Maple Leafs camp is about to hand Jim Hiller a real problem: figure out the 18-year-old’s fit in barely two exhibition games.
Toronto took McKenna first overall in the 2026 draft. After finishing 28th overall a season ago, getting his rookie year right matters more than usual. Hiller doesn’t even know yet if McKenna suits up for the Prospect Showcase, which means the teenager’s first real test against NHL bodies arrives on the preseason opener September 21.
There’s a wrinkle. McKenna cannot appear in both split-squad games against Montreal and Ottawa, so his evaluation window shrinks to two full exhibition outings before rosters lock. That leaves Hiller trying to judge a potential top-six fit the way a chef gets judged on one plate before opening night. There is not much room for a bad night.
Give him a look with Auston Matthews and the power play gets tested too, but there is only so much Hiller can squeeze out of a handful of tune-up games.
Nine games. That is the number that actually matters. Once McKenna dresses for his tenth regular-season game, Toronto burns the slide on his entry-level deal for good.
The schedule does not do Hiller any favors either. Toronto opens the year against Montreal at Scotiabank Arena, and the Canadiens rolled to a 48-24-10 record a year ago. After that opener, softer matchups follow against the Islanders, Senators, Mammoth and Predators—games built for a rookie to find his legs before Vegas or Colorado show up.
If McKenna plays like a point-per-game rookie through that stretch, there is no argument left for holding him back. If he does not, sending him down stays on the table. Burying him in the bottom six just to stall the contract clock would be a bad idea. Rushing him past what the games actually show would be worse.
So which mistake is Hiller more likely to make?
Toronto has one week between the preseason ending and opening night to sort all of this out. Low stakes now do not mean low stakes for long. Nine games from now, the Maple Leafs will know exactly what they have in Gavin McKenna. Whether Toronto likes the answer is a different story entirely.
The specific reason McKenna leaves them no choice is that nine-game threshold. Everything else—limited preseason looks, difficult early opponents, the temptation to manage the contract—is secondary to the hard calendar reality that forces a decision before anyone is fully ready.