Lake Erie, often overshadowed by its larger Great Lakes siblings, is proving to be a formidable force, unleashing devastating snowstorms on communities along its southeastern and eastern shores. Spanning Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, this shallowest and smallest of the Great Lakes by volume has become a silent killer, producing record-breaking snow events that paralyze cities and strain resources. As climate change warms its waters, the lake’s ability to generate intense, fast-falling snow is only increasing, leaving residents like Jim Timonere, city manager of Ashtabula, Ohio, grappling with unprecedented challenges.
A Historic Storm’s Lasting Impact
Last Thanksgiving weekend, a “historic” storm dumped nearly six feet of snow across the region, upending life for millions. In Ashtabula, a town of nearly 18,000, the storm’s ferocity caught residents off guard. “When I woke up at 3 a.m. to check the snowfall, I thought: ‘no big deal,’” Timonere recalls. “Two hours later, I looked outside, and it was: ‘Oh, my god.’ We got feet of snow in a matter of hours.” The storm collapsed the roofs of over a dozen structures, including the local high school, forcing hundreds of students into online classes for a month. “We’re used to eight inches of snow. We can handle that,” Timonere says. “But when you start talking feet, and two to three inches an hour, nobody can keep up with that.”
The storm’s impact lingered. Emergency services struggled to reach residents, some facing dangerous carbon monoxide levels from snow-blocked furnace vents. In one township, fire crews resorted to a water tanker truck to extinguish a blaze because snow buried fire hydrants. JoAnn Vranek, a retired English teacher in Ashtabula, couldn’t leave her home and hired a contractor to clear her driveway. “Others on my street paid hundreds of dollars,” she says. “The house next to me, her eaves and flashing came down. I don’t ever remember that happening before.” The local high school, built less than 20 years ago for nearly $40 million, remains closed, with repairs potentially taking a year.
The Science Behind Lake Erie’s Snow Machine
Lake Erie’s unique characteristics make it a perfect snow-making machine. As the shallowest Great Lake, with a maximum depth of just 210 feet, it warms quickly during summer and fall, retaining heat into winter. Since 1927, records show rising water temperatures: in the 1950s, Buffalo, New York, recorded August temperatures at or below 69°F for 28 days; in the past decade, this dropped to just two days, with averages climbing to 74°F. Warmer waters mean less ice cover—on January 1, 2025, Lake Erie was ice-free, though it later froze over partially. These conditions fuel lake-effect snow when cold Arctic air sweeps over the warm lake, causing rapid evaporation and heavy, localized snow dumps.
“On some level, compared to the past, this winter’s lake-effect snow has been extraordinary,” says Richard ‘Ricky’ Rood, professor emeritus at the University of Michigan and operator of Open Climate. “The lakes are staying warm, relatively ice-free far later into the winter season, and you still have cold air outbreaks.” A 2003 study in the Journal of Climate found a significant increase in snowfall at lake-effect sites across the Great Lakes throughout the 20th century. A June 2024 study in Earth’s Future projected that warming conditions could increase lake-effect precipitation in Buffalo by 14%, though some may fall as rain.
A Warming Planet, Worsening Storms
Paradoxically, a warming climate may intensify these snow events. The Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) program predicts regional air temperatures could rise by up to 11°F by 2100, further warming lake waters. While the frequency of cold air outbreaks capable of producing lake-effect snow may decrease, the intensity of these events is likely to increase. “It’s difficult to envision a situation where occasional, extreme cold air outbreaks producing intense lake-effect snows stop occurring,” says David Kristovich of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
This phenomenon isn’t unique to the Great Lakes. Warmer waters have led to increased sea- and lake-effect snow in places like Istanbul and cities near the Sea of Japan. In January 2025, lake-effect snow even struck the U.S. Gulf Coast. In Pennsylvania’s Erie region, January snowfall was average overall, but half fell in just three days, highlighting the trend of fewer, more severe storms. “Since the climate is actively warming, we’re starting to sample this warming climate,” Rood warns. “Do not treat these as one-off events.”
Straining Small Communities
For small communities like Ashtabula, these storms pose existential challenges. “We don’t have an abundance of funds to deal with this,” Timonere says. “I don’t have 20 guys I can put on the roads like big cities might.” The city is now factoring heavy snow and flooding into a $100 million plan to upgrade its water and wastewater infrastructure. Timonere urges residents to have contractors inspect roofs to prevent collapses.
Yue Li, a professor of engineering at Case Western Reserve University, emphasizes the need for broader adaptations. “Cities will need to design neighborhoods with better snow drainage systems, integrating snow storage areas and reviewing building standards, especially for roofs, to ensure they can withstand heavy snow loads,” he says. Expanding access to snow removal equipment, storage sites, and supplies like salt and sand is also critical.
A Silent Killer’s Growing Threat
Lake Erie may be the “forgotten” Great Lake, but its snow-making power is unforgettable for those in its path. As climate change warms its waters, the conditions for catastrophic snowstorms grow stronger, threatening lives, infrastructure, and economies. For communities like Ashtabula, adapting to this new reality requires resilience, investment, and a recognition that, as Timonere puts it, “the weather is changing, and there’s no denying it anymore.”